Is the wine market due for a price correction?

A few months ago, I wrote about the potential, negative impact the state of the economy could have on the wine market here and here. Wine Spectator's James Laube recently posed this observation:

I expect that the wine market will be challenged in the coming year or two. The main reason, of course, is a slumping economy and most people will be holding on to, and playing more carefully with, their money.
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Some producers, though, effectively shoot themselves in the foot by setting unrealistically high prices, and often raising them, even when the quality didn't justify the price to begin with. Day after day I come across new wines from new wineries with no track records, and they're asking $50 or more for a Pinot Noir, or $60 for a Chardonnay, or $75 to $175 for a Cabernet. Their justification? I guess the fact that they only made 100 or 300 cases, or that they have a rock-star winemaker, validates the high price in their minds.

But surely in these times, some of these high-priced wines will sell slowly, or maybe they won’t sell at all. Or they’ll sell once the market determines a fair price. And for some of these producers of overpriced wine, by the time the market determines a fair price, it will be too late.

Mr. Laube clearly focuses on new, unproven wineries seeking the premium label from the start. I think he, quite correctly, highlights how exposed these wineries are to an economic downturn. However, he ignores that even established wineries are very exposed.

Applying the theory of the hollow middle, "commodity" wines should not face a serious problem in this market. Cheap wines, after all, can still be bought and enjoyed. Thus, just as people still buy at Wall-Mart during a downturn, people will still buy the cheaper offerings from Robert Mondavi, BV, etc., etc. Similarly, any consumer who could afford Screaming Eagle, Chateau Petrus, Chateau Latour, Harlan, etc., etc., two years ago most likely can afford to buy those wins today (unless, for example, that consumer also happens to be a highly-paid trader at Bear Stearns).

So, who faces real exposure in a downturn?

"Premium" wines that often go from $50 to $300 a bottle, but lack the true investment potential of a collectible. While these may be top quality wines in similar numbers to top French chateaus, they do not have the same reputation that those chateaus have (a rough analogy would be Volvo to BMW).

So, what do I expect to happen during lean times to producers of these wines? If I had to guess, there will be either: (1) drift from these producers to "commodity" wines; or (2) a scale back in production of their top wines to a point where they become collectors items (and, hence, an increase in price due to a more limited supply). But can one expect a 9,000 case run of wines costing over $200 a bottle?